Topic Archives: Employment

Why This Counts: What Does the Future Hold for the Workforce?

You or someone you know may be deciding on a career, whether just starting out in the workforce or looking to change jobs. If so, you may have questions about potential careers. BLS employment projections and our Occupational Outlook Handbook can help answer them.

“Our team highlights the Occupational Outlook Handbook in their workshops and in their individual coaching sessions with students as a key resource for them to explore, expand, and understand all of their options. Our team also uses the information to assess job trends so we can help students prepare for the job market of the future.” — George Washington University, Center for Career Services

Even if you aren’t looking for a career change, you may be interested in a broader picture of the future of the U.S. economy and workforce. You can find this information, and much more, from the Employment Projections program.

What’s a projection and how do you make one?

A projection is an estimate of future conditions or trends based on a study of past and present trends.

Every 2 years, the Employment Projections program publishes 10-year projections of national employment by industry and occupation based on analysis of historical and current economic data. The purpose is to offer some insight into questions about the future growth or decline of industries and occupations.

We use historical and current BLS data primarily from the Current Population Survey, the Current Employment Statistics survey, and the Occupational Employment Statistics survey. You can see an overview of our six-step projections process.

BLS is working toward releasing the projections each year, rather than every 2 years.

See our video on “Understanding BLS Employment Projections.”

What are some data highlights for the 2016–26 projections?

The most recent labor force projections tell us about the impact of the aging of the population.

  • As the large baby-boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) grows older, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to be lower than in previous decades. The labor force participation rate is the share of people working or looking for work. We project the rate to be 61.0 percent in 2026, compared with 62.8 percent in 2016 and 66.2 percent in 2006. This is because older people have lower labor force participation rates than younger age groups.
  • The 55-and-older age group is projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force in 2026, up from 22.4 percent in 2016 and 16.8 percent in 2006.
  • The share held by the youngest age group—ages 16 to 24—is projected to continue to decline as they focus on their education.

Percent distribution of the labor force by age in 1996, 2006, 2016, and projected 2026

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

We can view employment projections in terms of the change in the number of jobs and as a percent change. The projected percent change represents how fast an occupation or industry is projected to grow.

  • The chart below includes the top ten fastest-growing occupations from 2016 to 2026.
  • Five of the occupations are related to healthcare, which makes sense with a population that is growing older.
  • The top two fastest-growing occupations install, repair, and maintain solar panels and wind turbines. These two occupations are small in numbers but are both projected to double in size over the decade, reflecting the current interest in alternative forms of energy.
  • The remaining occupations fall into what is known as STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math).

Fastest-growing occupations, projected, 2016–26

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

What other information can you get from the Employment Projections program?

BLS also provides information on the education and training path for occupations. What education do people usually need to enter an occupation? Does the occupation typically need work experience in a related occupation? Is specific on-the-job training typically needed? BLS provides this information for every detailed occupation for which we publish projections. We describe the typical path to entry in the base year of the projections. This education and training information, with the occupational projections and wages, form the basis of the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

“It [the Occupational Outlook Handbook] is a great jumping off point. I use it to go more in depth with students. We look at what the career entails, and which fields really appeal to them.” — Gail Grand, College Counselor, Westlake Village, California

What is the Occupational Outlook Handbook?

The Occupational Outlook Handbook has been around for nearly 70 years, and it is a trusted (and free!) source of career information. It incorporates BLS data and lots of other information about careers, along with tools to find the information you need. Another publication, Career Outlook, is published throughout the year and provides practical information about careers for students, career counselors, jobseekers, and others planning careers.

“The Handbook has been an effective tool during our strategic planning process at the Foundation. We’ve used the data to design an investment strategy that will focus on linking opportunity youth with promising careers in the region. OOH enabled us to sync up resource allocation with program development.” — Kristopher Smith, Foundation for the Mid-South

Want to know about projections for your state or local area?

While BLS makes projections at the national level, each state makes projections for states and local areas. Find information on state projections at Projections Central.

Want more Employment Projections information?

Check out the latest news release. Head to the Frequently Asked Questions to learn more. Or contact the information folks by phone, (202) 691-5700, or email.

Changing jobs or starting a new career is a big decision. Use these gold-standard BLS data to help you make smart decisions, which could help you for years to come. Don’t be a buggy whip maker when everyone is riding in a self-driving car—or a rocket ship!

Percent distribution of the labor force by age
Year 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 and older
1996 15.8% 25.3% 27.3% 19.7% 11.9%
2006 14.8 21.5 23.7 23.2 16.8
2016 13.3 22.3 20.6 21.3 22.5
Projected 2026 11.7 22.1 22.2 19.2 24.8
Fastest-growing occupations, projected, 2016–26
Occupation Percent change
Solar photovoltaic installers 104.9%
Wind turbine service technicians 96.3
Home health aides 47.3
Personal care aides 38.6
Physician assistants 37.3
Nurse practitioners 36.1
Statisticians 33.8
Physical therapist assistants 31.0
Software developers, applications 30.7
Mathematicians 29.7

New BLS Local Data App Now Available

BLS has partnered with the U.S. Department of Labor’s Office of the Chief Information Officer to develop a new mobile app for iPhones that is now available for free in the App Store! Search “BLS Local Data.”

The BLS Local Data app is ideal for customers who want to know more about local labor markets, such as jobseekers and economic and workforce development professionals. You can search using your current location, a zip code, or a location name to find relevant data quickly without having to navigate through the huge BLS database. With one click, you can find data for states, metro areas, or counties.

Using the BLS API, the app quickly presents local data and national comparisons for unemployment rates, employment, and wages.

In the coming months, look for more features and data in the app. We’re already working on future releases that will include industry and occupation drilldowns and comparisons between local areas.

Check out the app and explore the wealth of local labor market data produced by BLS! And don’t worry, Android users! An Android version of the app will be available in the future.

iPhone screen image for BLS Local Data app

Celebrating Our Teachers on World Teachers’ Day!

Teachers of America (and the world), we celebrate you! To commemorate World Teachers’ Day on October 5, I want to share some data about today’s teachers and reflect back on how my own teachers influenced me on my path to become the Acting Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. We’ll also include quotes from some amazing teachers on what inspires them to teach.

I love seeing my students grow and the excitement in their eyes when they’re learning. Adrienne Davenport, Preschool teacher, Portland, Oregon

I always enjoyed math class, although college-level calculus proved to be a challenge. One of my favorite teachers taught me both geometry and calculus at Wilbur Cross High School in New Haven, Connecticut. (Home of the Governors!) What I mostly remember was how patient she was with everyone in the class. She wanted everyone to succeed and went out of her way to make everyone feel special. Hers was the last class of the day, and we’d often stay late just to soak up a little more calculus. I guess geek-dom starts early.

Math is something I like and it’s rewarding for me to be able to show students that math isn’t scary and that they’re smart enough to do it. Nikita Midamba, Math teacher, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

I’m not sure I’d ever heard of economics or statistics back in high school, and I certainly had never heard of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But I had a good foundation in math, which I put to use every day. I even got pretty good at using a slide rule (kids, you can search for it on the Internet). But that’s a story for another day.

I love teaching for a lot of reasons. Wanting my students to have more access to opportunities in life is what keeps pushing me. Lydia Shelly, High school math teacher, Glendale, Arizona

Oh, economics. I guess I stumbled onto that in college, and was fortunate to have great professors and interesting topics like labor economics, urban economics, economic history, and even Soviet economics. But the one I remember most fondly was “Economics of the Arts,” which explored movies, theater, music, museums, and more. No wonder I came to work in a city brimming with the arts.

I love teaching, especially beginners. When you see students finally connect with a dance move they’ve been trying for weeks, they get so excited. That’s rewarding. Stephanie Yezek-Jolivet, Dance teacher

Enough of me reminiscing. Now let’s get to the facts. I’m happy to report BLS has lots of data about teachers. Table 1 shows employment, wages, and projected growth for a few teacher categories. Links go to the Occupational Outlook Handbook, which provides career information on duties, education and training, pay, and outlook for hundreds of occupations, including, of course, teachers!

Table 1: Employment, projected outlook, and wages for teachers
Occupation Employment, 2016 Employment growth, projected 2016–26 (percent) Employment change, projected 2016–26 Median annual wage, May 2017
Preschool teachers 478,500 10% (Faster than average) 50,100 $28,990
Kindergarten and elementary school teachers 1,565,300 7% (As fast as average) 116,300 $56,900
Middle school teachers 630,300 8% (As fast as average) 47,300 $57,720
High school teachers 1,018,700 8% (As fast as average) 76,800 $59,170
Special education teachers 439,300 8% (As fast as average) 33,300 $58,980
Career and technical education teachers 219,400 4% (Slower than average) 7,700 $55,240
Postsecondary teachers 1,314,400 15% (Much faster than average) 197,800 $76,000
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projections program and Occupational Employment Statistics survey.

I’ve saved the best for last! Time to drill down and look at some local data. Using data from our Occupational Employment Statistics program, let’s look at the Secondary School Teachers page as an example. Scroll down the page and you will see six maps and charts, which include state and metropolitan area data for employment, concentration of jobs and average wages of secondary school teachers. To highlight some of the data:

  • Where is high school teacher employment?
    • Texas has the highest employment of secondary school teachers (113,120) with California coming in second (107,680).
    • Wyoming is the state with the lowest number of high school teachers (1,860) and Vermont has the second lowest number (2,120).
    • New York-Jersey City-White Plains, New York-New Jersey, Metropolitan area has the most employment (42,350).
  • How do wages differ?
    • Average annual wages of secondary school teachers ranged from the lowest in Oklahoma ($41,880) and South Dakota ($41,980) to the highest in Alaska ($85,420) and New York ($83,360).
    • The highest paid area for secondary school teachers is Nassau County-Suffolk County, New York, Metropolitan Division with an average annual wage of $101,110. The lowest paid area for secondary school teachers is Sierra Vista-Douglas, Arizona, at $39,590.
  • Where are the highest and lowest concentrations of secondary school teacher jobs?
    • If you look at the employment per thousand jobs, the state of Missouri has the highest number (9.9 teacher jobs for every 1,000 jobs), with Maine (9.6), Texas (9.5) and Ohio (9.4) close behind.
    • On the low end of the scale are Nevada (4.4 teacher jobs for every 1,000 jobs), Washington (4.5) and the District of Columbia (4.6).

To learn more about teacher data available from the Occupational Employment Statistics program, see Education, Training, and Library Occupation Profiles. For a list of all industries and occupations, see the Create Customized Tables function.

Want more information?

Whatever you do in life, you may have a teacher (or two!) to thank for guiding you on your path. So join with me and say, “Thank you teachers for all you do!”

BLS Measures Electronically Mediated Work

Are you a ride-share driver using a mobile app (like Uber or Lyft) to find customers? Maybe you do household chores or yardwork for others by finding short-term jobs through a website (such as TaskRabbit or Handy) that arranges the payment for your work. Or perhaps you perform online tasks, like taking surveys or adding descriptive keywords to photos or documents through a platform (like Amazon Mechanical Turk or Clickworker). If so, you are an electronically mediated worker. That’s a term BLS uses to identify people who do short jobs or tasks they find through websites or mobile apps that connect them with customers and arrange payment for the tasks. Have you ever wondered how many people do this kind of work?

BLS decided to find out. In the May 2017 Contingent Worker Supplement to the Current Population Survey, we asked people four new questions designed to measure electronically mediated employment.

Measuring electronically mediated work is difficult

After studying respondents’ answers to the new questions and other information we collected about them, we realized the new questions didn’t work as intended. Most people who responded “yes” to the questions clearly had not found their work through a website or app. For example, a vice president of a major bank, a local police officer, and a surgeon at a large hospital all said they had done electronically mediated work on their main job. Many people seemed to think we were asking whether they used a computer or mobile app on their job. That could apply to many jobs that aren’t electronically mediated.

But it wasn’t all for naught. After extensive evaluation, we concluded we could use the other information in the survey about respondents’ jobs to identify and recode erroneous answers. That allowed us to produce meaningful estimates of electronically mediated employment.

So, who does electronically mediated work?

Based on our recoded data, we found that 1.6 million people did electronically mediated work in May 2017. These workers accounted for 1.0 percent of total employment. Compared with workers overall, electronically mediated workers were more likely to be ages 25 to 54 and less likely to be age 55 or older. Electronically mediated workers also were slightly more likely to be Black, and slightly less likely to be White, than workers in general. In addition, electronically mediated workers were more likely than workers overall to work part time (28 percent versus 18 percent).

Workers in the transportation and utilities industry were the most likely to have done electronically mediated work, with 5 percent of workers in this industry having done such work. Self-employed workers were more likely than wage and salary workers to do electronically mediated work (4 percent versus 1 percent).

What’s next?

We currently don’t have plans to collect information on electronically mediated work again. And even if we did, we wouldn’t want to use the same four questions. At the least, we would need to substantially revise the questions so they are easier for people to understand and answer correctly.

Taking a broader look, we are working with the Committee on National Statistics to learn more about what we should measure if we field the survey again. The committee is a federally supported independent organization whose mission is to improve the statistical methods and information on which public policies are based.

How can I get more information?

The data are available on our website, along with an article that details how we developed the questions, evaluated the responses, recoded erroneous answers, and analyzed the final estimates.

If you have a specific question, you might find it in our Frequently Asked Questions. Or you can contact our staff.

Digging Deeper into the Details about the Unemployed

National employment indicators, such as the unemployment rate, get attention as we release them each month. In August 2018, the unemployment rate stood at 3.9 percent, the same as in July. The rate in May, 3.8 percent, was the lowest since 2000. In addition to reporting this headline number, the Bureau of Labor Statistics provides considerable detail about those who are employed – and those who are unemployed. Let’s explore.

But first, a reminder. The unemployment rate and details about the unemployed come from the monthly Current Population Survey, a survey of roughly 60,000 households. We collect information about household members age 16 and over. These individuals are counted as “employed” if they say they performed at least one hour of work “for pay or profit” during the reference week, the week including the 12th of the month. People are “unemployed” if they say that during the reference week they (1) had not worked; (2) were available for work; and (3) had actively looked for work (such as submitting a job application or attending a job interview) sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week.

Together, the employed and unemployed make up the “labor force.” The unemployment rate is the share of the labor force who are unemployed. Those who are neither employed nor unemployed are “not in the labor force.” This category includes students, retirees, stay-at-home parents, people with a disability, and others who are not working or actively looking for work.

We have more measures that help to provide a fuller picture of America’s labor force. These include people who work part time but would prefer to work full time. We also count people who have searched for work in the past 12 months but not in the past 4 weeks (and are therefore not counted as unemployed). Further, we count a subset of this group who are not looking because they do not believe work is available for them. People who fall into these categories are included in the alternative measures of labor underutilization, which we publish each month.

Let’s look at the unemployed in more detail. We can sort the unemployed into 4 groups: (1) new entrants to the labor force (such as recent graduates now looking for work); (2) reentrants to the labor force (those who had a job, then left the labor force, and are now looking for work again); (3) job leavers (those who recently left a job voluntarily); and (4) job losers (those who left a job involuntarily, such as getting laid off or fired or completing temporary jobs).

Typically, the largest share of the unemployed are job losers, and this share jumps during economic downturns. While the other categories are less volatile, they make up a larger share of the total as job losers decline. For example, in August 2018, 44 percent of the unemployed were either reentrants or those who recently left a job. The share of the unemployed in both of these categories is higher than in 2009, when job losers accounted for nearly two-thirds of the unemployed. A potential reason for people to reenter the labor market, or leave an existing job to look for another, is that they perceive jobs are readily available. In periods of high unemployment, reentrants make up a smaller proportion of the unemployed. For example, when the unemployment rate reached 10.0 percent in October 2009, reentrants made up only 22 percent of the unemployed. Similarly, in 2009 and 2010, the share of the unemployed who were job leavers (those who quit their jobs voluntarily) was less than 6 percent, about half of the current share.

A chart showing the number of unemployed by the reason for unemployment from 1998 to 2018

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available from our data-retrieval tool.

Another measure to assess the strength of the labor market is the number of people quitting their job. These data are from our Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. That survey asks employers about the number of “separations” over the past month. It classifies separations as either quits (voluntary), layoffs or discharges (not voluntary), or other (including retirements, deaths, and disability). The most recent data, for July 2018, identified 3.6 million quits over the month, an all-time high. (The survey began in 2000.) The quit rate, which divides quits by total employment, was 2.4 percent, also close to a record high.

Most of the time, quits exceed layoffs and discharges, except in periods of high unemployment.

A chart showing the number of people each month who quit their jobs, were laid off or discharged from their job, or separated for other reasons from 2000 to 2018

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available from our data-retrieval tool.

At any given time, there is a lot of movement in and out of jobs, and in and out of the labor market. And individuals have a variety of reasons for making such moves. But the overall trend in recent years toward individuals coming back into the labor market and voluntarily quitting their jobs suggests that individuals may feel that job opportunities are available.