Topic Archives: Why This Counts

New Measures of Prices for Global Trade

Shipping containers sitting on a dock at a port.How do prices for U.S. manufacturing exports compare to prices for goods manufactured abroad? How has the balance of export and import prices between the United States and Mexico changed over time? BLS has new measures to answer these and other questions on the competitiveness of U.S. production. We have published data on import and export price indexes since 1973. Since then we have made many improvements to the data we provide. Our latest improvements are the locality of destination export price indexes and the U.S. terms of trade indexes.

What are the locality of destination indexes?

Each locality of destination index measures price changes in dollars for U.S. goods exported to another country, region, or group of countries. These include major U.S. trade partners like China and the European Union. The indexes are available for all goods and for manufacturing and nonmanufacturing goods industries for some localities. The locality of destination indexes are a counterpart to the locality of origin import price indexes, which we have published since 1990. The locality of origin indexes let us examine price trends for goods imported from other countries, regions, and groups of countries.

What do the locality of destination indexes tell us?

The locality of destination indexes show how export price movements can vary depending on where U.S. goods are sold. For instance, from August to September 2018, prices for manufacturing exports to Latin America increased 0.3 percent. During the same period, manufacturing export prices to the European Union did not change. Comparing the two price movements, we can conclude market prices for U.S. exports arriving in Latin America increased relative to exports bound for Europe. Identifying these trends allows data users to dig deeper to see how currency exchange rates or shifts in global supply and demand affect price movements across trade partners.

What are the terms of trade indexes?

Each terms of trade index measures the purchasing power of U.S. exports, in terms of imports, for a specific country, region, or group of countries. In other words, the terms of trade index for China provides information on the price for exports to China, and how those export prices compare to prices for imports coming from China. Prices for exports and imports are measured in U.S. dollars, so exchange rates are already taken into account. We calculate the terms of trade index for China by dividing the China export index by the China import index, then multiplying by 100. An increase in the China terms of trade index means prices for exports to China are rising faster than prices for imports from China.

What does a terms of trade index price change mean?

A change in a terms of trade index provides information on the competitiveness of U.S. goods in the global market. Take the previous example, an increase in the China terms of trade index. U.S. producers are receiving higher prices for exported goods, meaning U.S. companies can now afford to purchase more imports. The U.S. terms of trade—or competitiveness—with China have improved. When looking at the trends, remember that the types of goods U.S. businesses export to and import from China are different, and underlying price changes may have different causes.

How broad is the coverage of the terms of trade indexes?

We have terms of trade indexes for each country, region, or group of countries where we publish both a locality of destination export index and a locality of origin import index. These countries include major trading partners:

  • Canada
  • Mexico
  • Germany
  • China
  • Japan

They also include regions or groups of countries:

  • Industrialized Countries (Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and South Africa)
  • European Union
  • Latin America (Mexico, Central America, South America, and the Caribbean)
  • Pacific Rim (China, Japan, Australia, Brunei, Indonesia, Macao, Malaysia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries)

We publish the terms of trade indexes and the locality of destination indexes monthly. Data are available beginning with December 2017.

Why did we develop these new indexes?

The locality of destination and terms of trade indexes come from an ongoing effort to better measure the competitiveness of U.S. goods. We began expanding our measures of competitiveness in 2010 by extending the locality of origin import indexes to more detailed industries. Next we began work on the locality of destination and terms of trade indexes, eventually introducing them in September 2018.

Want to learn more?

Why This Counts: What Does the Future Hold for the Workforce?

You or someone you know may be deciding on a career, whether just starting out in the workforce or looking to change jobs. If so, you may have questions about potential careers. BLS employment projections and our Occupational Outlook Handbook can help answer them.

“Our team highlights the Occupational Outlook Handbook in their workshops and in their individual coaching sessions with students as a key resource for them to explore, expand, and understand all of their options. Our team also uses the information to assess job trends so we can help students prepare for the job market of the future.” — George Washington University, Center for Career Services

Even if you aren’t looking for a career change, you may be interested in a broader picture of the future of the U.S. economy and workforce. You can find this information, and much more, from the Employment Projections program.

What’s a projection and how do you make one?

A projection is an estimate of future conditions or trends based on a study of past and present trends.

Every 2 years, the Employment Projections program publishes 10-year projections of national employment by industry and occupation based on analysis of historical and current economic data. The purpose is to offer some insight into questions about the future growth or decline of industries and occupations.

We use historical and current BLS data primarily from the Current Population Survey, the Current Employment Statistics survey, and the Occupational Employment Statistics survey. You can see an overview of our six-step projections process.

BLS is working toward releasing the projections each year, rather than every 2 years.

See our video on “Understanding BLS Employment Projections.”

What are some data highlights for the 2016–26 projections?

The most recent labor force projections tell us about the impact of the aging of the population.

  • As the large baby-boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964) grows older, the overall labor force participation rate is projected to be lower than in previous decades. The labor force participation rate is the share of people working or looking for work. We project the rate to be 61.0 percent in 2026, compared with 62.8 percent in 2016 and 66.2 percent in 2006. This is because older people have lower labor force participation rates than younger age groups.
  • The 55-and-older age group is projected to make up nearly one-quarter of the labor force in 2026, up from 22.4 percent in 2016 and 16.8 percent in 2006.
  • The share held by the youngest age group—ages 16 to 24—is projected to continue to decline as they focus on their education.

Percent distribution of the labor force by age in 1996, 2006, 2016, and projected 2026

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

We can view employment projections in terms of the change in the number of jobs and as a percent change. The projected percent change represents how fast an occupation or industry is projected to grow.

  • The chart below includes the top ten fastest-growing occupations from 2016 to 2026.
  • Five of the occupations are related to healthcare, which makes sense with a population that is growing older.
  • The top two fastest-growing occupations install, repair, and maintain solar panels and wind turbines. These two occupations are small in numbers but are both projected to double in size over the decade, reflecting the current interest in alternative forms of energy.
  • The remaining occupations fall into what is known as STEM (science, technology, engineering, and math).

Fastest-growing occupations, projected, 2016–26

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

What other information can you get from the Employment Projections program?

BLS also provides information on the education and training path for occupations. What education do people usually need to enter an occupation? Does the occupation typically need work experience in a related occupation? Is specific on-the-job training typically needed? BLS provides this information for every detailed occupation for which we publish projections. We describe the typical path to entry in the base year of the projections. This education and training information, with the occupational projections and wages, form the basis of the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

“It [the Occupational Outlook Handbook] is a great jumping off point. I use it to go more in depth with students. We look at what the career entails, and which fields really appeal to them.” — Gail Grand, College Counselor, Westlake Village, California

What is the Occupational Outlook Handbook?

The Occupational Outlook Handbook has been around for nearly 70 years, and it is a trusted (and free!) source of career information. It incorporates BLS data and lots of other information about careers, along with tools to find the information you need. Another publication, Career Outlook, is published throughout the year and provides practical information about careers for students, career counselors, jobseekers, and others planning careers.

“The Handbook has been an effective tool during our strategic planning process at the Foundation. We’ve used the data to design an investment strategy that will focus on linking opportunity youth with promising careers in the region. OOH enabled us to sync up resource allocation with program development.” — Kristopher Smith, Foundation for the Mid-South

Want to know about projections for your state or local area?

While BLS makes projections at the national level, each state makes projections for states and local areas. Find information on state projections at Projections Central.

Want more Employment Projections information?

Check out the latest news release. Head to the Frequently Asked Questions to learn more. Or contact the information folks by phone, (202) 691-5700, or email.

Changing jobs or starting a new career is a big decision. Use these gold-standard BLS data to help you make smart decisions, which could help you for years to come. Don’t be a buggy whip maker when everyone is riding in a self-driving car—or a rocket ship!

Percent distribution of the labor force by age
Year 16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 and older
1996 15.8% 25.3% 27.3% 19.7% 11.9%
2006 14.8 21.5 23.7 23.2 16.8
2016 13.3 22.3 20.6 21.3 22.5
Projected 2026 11.7 22.1 22.2 19.2 24.8
Fastest-growing occupations, projected, 2016–26
Occupation Percent change
Solar photovoltaic installers 104.9%
Wind turbine service technicians 96.3
Home health aides 47.3
Personal care aides 38.6
Physician assistants 37.3
Nurse practitioners 36.1
Statisticians 33.8
Physical therapist assistants 31.0
Software developers, applications 30.7
Mathematicians 29.7

Making It Easier to Find Data on Pay and Benefits

We love data at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. We have lots of data about the labor market and economy, but we sometimes wish we had more. For example, we believe workers, businesses, and public policymakers would benefit if we had up-to-date information on employer-provided training. I recently wrote about the challenges of collecting good data on electronically mediated work, or what many people call “gig” work. I know many of you could make your own list of data you wish BLS had. One topic for which we have no shortage of data is pay and benefits. In fact, we have a dozen surveys or programs that provide information on compensation. We have so much data on compensation that it can be hard to decide which source is best for a particular purpose.

Where can you get pay data on the age, sex, or race of workers? Where should you go if you want pay data for teachers, nurses, accountants, or other occupations? What about if you want occupational pay data for a specific metro area? Or if you want occupational pay data for women and men separately? What if you want information on workers who receive medical insurance from their employers? Where can you find information on employers’ costs for employee benefits? Here’s a short video to get you started.

But wait, there’s more! To make it easier to figure out which source is right for your needs, we now have an interactive guide to all BLS data on pay, benefits, wages, earnings, and all the other terms we use to describe compensation. Let me explain what I mean by “interactive.” The guide lists 12 sources of compensation data and 32 key details about those data sources. 12 x 32 = a LOT of information! Having so much information in one place can feel overwhelming, so we created some features to let you choose what you want to see.

For example, the guide limits the display to three data sources at a time, rather than all 12. You can choose which sources you want to learn about from the menus at the top of the guide.Snippet of interactive guide on BLS compensation data.

If you want to learn about one of the 32 key details across all 12 data sources, just press or click that characteristic in the left column. For example, if you choose “Measures available by occupation?” a new window will open on your screen to describe the pay data available from each source on workers’ occupations.

There are links near the bottom of the guide to help you find where to go if you want even more information about each data source.

Check out our overview of statistics on pay and benefits. The first paragraph on that page has a link to the interactive guide. We often like to say, “We’ve got a stat for that!” When it comes to pay and benefits, we have lots of stats for that. Let us know how you like this new interactive guide.

Why This Counts: Breaking Down Multifactor Productivity

Productivity measures tell us how much better we are at using available resources today compared to years past. All of us probably think about our own productivity levels every day, either in the workplace or at home. I find my own productivity is best in the morning, right after that first cup of coffee!

On a larger scale, here at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we produce two types of productivity measures: labor productivity and multifactor productivity, which we will call “MFP” for short. An earlier Why This Counts blog post focused on labor productivity and its impact on our lives. In this blog we will focus on why MFP measures matter to you.

Why do we need two types of productivity measures?

Labor productivity compares the amount of goods and services produced—what we call output—to the number of labor hours used to produce those goods and services.

Multifactor productivity differs from labor productivity by comparing output not just to hours worked, but to a combination of inputs.

What are these combined inputs?

For any given industry, the combined inputs include labor, capital, energy, materials, and purchased services. MFP tells us how much more output can be produced without increasing any of these inputs. The more efficiently an industry uses its combination of inputs to create output, the faster MFP will grow. MFP gives us a broader understanding of how we are all able to do more with less.

Does MFP tell us anything about the impact of technology?

It does. But we cannot untangle the impact of technology from other factors. MFP describes the growth in output that is not a result of using more of the inputs that we can measure. In other words, MFP represents what is left, the sources of growth that we cannot measure. These include not just technology improvements but also changes in factors such as management practices and the scale or organization of production. Put simply, MFP uses what we do know to learn more about what we want to know.

What can MFP tell us about labor productivity?

Labor productivity goes up when output grows faster than hours. But what exactly causes output to grow faster than hours? Labor productivity can grow because workers have more capital or other inputs or their job skills have improved. Labor productivity also may grow because technology has advanced, management practices have improved, or there have been returns to scale or other unmeasured influences on production. MFP statistics help us capture these influences and measure their impact on labor productivity growth.

How are MFP statistics used?

We can identify the sources of economic growth by comparing MFP with the inputs of production. This is true for individual industries and the nation as a whole.

For example, a lot has been written about the decline of manufacturing in the United States. MFP increased between 1992 and 2004 by an average of 2.0 percent per year. In contrast, MFP declined from 2004 through 2016 by an average of 0.3 percent per year. A recently published article uses detailed industry data to analyze sources of this productivity slowdown.

MFP is a valuable tool for exploring historical growth patterns, setting policies, and charting the potential for future economic growth. Businesses, industry analysts, and government policymakers use MFP statistics to make better decisions.

Where can I go to learn more?

Check out the most recent annual news release to see the data firsthand!

If you have a specific question, you might find it answered in our Frequently Asked Questions. Or you can always contact MFP staff through email or call (202) 691-5606.

Just like your own productivity at work and at home, the productivity growth of our nation can lead to improvements in the standard of living and the economic well-being of the country. Productivity is an important economic indicator that is often overlooked. We hope this blog has helped you to learn more about the value of the MFP!

How Hazardous are Summer Jobs for Our Young Workers?

During the summer months, young people (ages 16 to 24) may head to work, many for the first time. Maybe it’s babysitting or lawn mowing. Or perhaps you’re a lifeguard or working at the local fast food joint. With many students out of school and looking for opportunities in the workforce, just how safe are these new workers? In what types of jobs do workplace fatalities most commonly occur for these young workers and why?

From 2011 to 2016, 2,176 young workers were killed while on the job. One-third of these fatal injuries occurred during the summertime; 20 percent of the workers killed were ages 16–19, while the remaining 80 percent were ages 20–24.

Where do young worker fatalities occur?

While there are restrictions on the types of work that certain younger workers can do and the number of hours they can work, young workers still often have hazardous jobs. Construction and extraction occupations accounted for 22 percent of fatalities to young workers during the summer months, followed by transportation and material moving (17 percent) and farming, fishing, and forestry (11 percent). Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations accounted for 25 percent of all fatalities for workers ages 16–19, compared with only 8 percent for workers ages 20–24.

Chart showing percent distribution of fatal work injuries during the summer months by occupation and age, 2011–16

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

Over the 6-year period, construction laborers experienced the most fatal injuries of any individual occupation for both 16–19 year-old workers (36 fatal injuries) and 20–24 year-old workers (126 fatal injuries).

Are young workers more or less likely to have workplace fatalities?

Young workers have lower fatality rates than middle age and older workers. In 2016, workers ages 16–17, 18–19, and 20–24 all had lower fatal injury rates than the total fatality rate of 3.6 workers per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers.

Chart showing rate of fatal work injuries per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by age, 2016

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

What kinds of fatal incidents occur to young workers?

Transportation incidents accounted for the greatest proportion of workplace fatalities to both 16–19 year-old and 20–24 year-old workers. Transportation incidents include those involving airplanes, trains, water vehicles, or pedestrians struck by vehicles. The most prevalent are “roadway” incidents, where the person killed was in a vehicle. Typical roadway incidents include collisions between vehicles, collisions between a vehicle and something other than a vehicle, and noncollision incidents, such as a vehicle that jackknifes or overturns.

Roadway incidents alone accounted for more than one-quarter of fatal injuries to workers ages 16–19 and 20–24, which is similar to all workers.

Fatal occupational injuries to young workers in the summer months by event or exposure and age, 2011–16
Event or exposure Ages 16–19 Ages 20–24
Violence and other injuries by persons or animals 9% 18%

Homicides

6 8

Suicides

3 9
Transportation incidents 51 42

Roadway incidents

27 26
Fall, slip, trip 6 7

Fall to lower level

6 7
Exposure to harmful substances or environments 13 17

Exposure to electricity

5 8
Contact with objects and equipment 19 11

Struck by object or equipment

13 8
Note: Totals do not add to 100 percent because some fatal injuries did not fall into any of these categories.

Workers ages 16–19 experienced a higher proportion of fatalities due to contact with objects and equipment, such as being struck by an object or equipment. Workers ages 20–24 experienced a higher proportion of fatal injuries due to workplace violence—both homicides and suicides.

What resources are available to increase young worker safety?

Before you apply for that next summer job, or before you tell your kids to get out from behind the video games and get a job, you might want to learn more about hazards in the workplace. Both the Occupational Safety and Health Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have online resources to help prevent workplace injuries and fatalities to young workers.

Want to know more about fatalities in the workplace?

Percent distribution of fatal work injuries during the summer months by occupation and age, 2011–16
Occupation Ages 16–19 Ages 20–24 Age 25 and older
Farming, fishing, and forestry 25% 8% 5%
Construction and extraction 21 22 20
Transportation and material moving 16 18 26
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance 10 6 7
Military occupations 6 6 1
Sales and related 4 6 4
Installation, maintenance, and repair 4 8 8
Production 3 4 4
Protective service 3 8 5
All other 8 14 20
Rate of fatal work injuries per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers by age, 2016
Age Fatal work injury rate
16 to 17 2.1
18 to 19 1.9
20 to 24 2.4
25 to 34 2.5
35 to 44 3.1
45 to 54 3.5
55 to 64 4.7
65 and older 9.6