Tag Archives: State and local government

Ensuring Gold-Standard Data in the Eye of a Storm

“Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria were the most notable storms of 2017, leaving paths of death and destruction in their wake.”
Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project 2017 summary report

Colorado State University’s Tropical Meteorology Project is forecasting the 2018 hurricane season activity (as of May 31) to be average, with 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes expected. Is BLS ready?

How does BLS deal with hurricanes?

Since June starts hurricane season, we want to share with you one example of how last year’s storms affected our data. We present a case study using our national employment survey, the Current Employment Statistics program. This program provides monthly estimates we publish in The Employment Situation—sometimes called the “jobs report.”

We have procedures to address natural disasters. We highlight some of our challenges and how we address them. We do everything possible to provide you with gold-standard data to help you make smart decisions!

2017 Hurricane Destruction

Two major hurricanes—Harvey and Irma—blasted the U.S. mainland in August and September 2017. Hurricane Maria devastated Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands later in September.

  • Harvey first made landfall in Texas on August 25. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) declared 39 Texas counties eligible for federal disaster assistance after Harvey. Harvey also caused heavy damage in Louisiana.
  • Irma hit the Florida Keys on September 10 and then later hit Florida’s southern coast. FEMA declared 48 Florida counties eligible for federal disaster assistance. Before Irma hit the lower Florida Keys, the hurricane already had caused severe damage in St. Thomas and St. John in the U.S. Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico.
  • Hurricane Maria made landfall in St. Croix in the U.S. Virgin Islands and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, September 20, causing catastrophic damage. These areas already had suffered damage from Hurricane Irma earlier in the month.

Some things to know about the monthly employment survey

The monthly employment survey is a sample of nonfarm businesses and government agencies. The reference period is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. The sample has just over 23,000 active reporting units in the disaster areas, representing about 6 percent of the entire active sample.

What does it mean to be employed? If the employer pays someone for any part of the reference pay period, that person is counted as employed.

How did BLS collect data in these disaster areas?

Our biggest challenge is to collect representative sample data so we publish high-quality estimates. In the “old days,” the survey was a mail survey (yes, I mean snail mail), but no more! Now we collect data electronically by several different methods. These are the most common:

  • About half the total sample uses electronic data interchange. That’s a centralized electronic data reporting system for multi-establishment firms. The firm provides an electronic file directly from their payroll system to BLS for all establishments included in the report. Most of the firms reporting are outside of the hurricane-affected areas, although they may report on establishments within the affected areas.
  • About 23 percent of establishments use computer-assisted telephone interviews.
  • Another 16 percent report using our Internet Data Collection Facility.

Using these methods, we were able to collect data from most sampled businesses in these areas using normal procedures.

What about the emergency workers working in the disaster areas? How are they counted?

  • We count emergency workers where their employer is located, not where they are working.
  • We don’t count volunteers as employed because they are not paid.
  • Activated National Guard troops are considered active duty military and are outside the scope of the survey.

Did the estimation procedures change?

Once we collect the data from businesses in the affected areas, we consider whether we need to change our estimation procedures to adjust for missing data. The survey staff determined that we didn’t need to change our methods because the collection rates in the affected areas were within normal ranges.

How did the hurricanes affect national employment data for September 2017?

Hurricanes Harvey and Irma reduced the estimate of national payroll employment for September 2017. We can’t measure the effects precisely because the survey is not designed to isolate the effects of catastrophic events. National nonfarm employment changed little (+14,000) in September 2017, after increasing by an average of 189,000 per month over the prior 12 months. A steep employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

What about Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands?

National nonfarm employment estimates do not include Puerto Rico or the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Because of the devastation caused by Hurricanes Irma and Maria, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands could not conduct normal data collection for their establishment surveys. The September estimates for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands were delayed. The October and November estimates for the Virgin Islands also were delayed. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands eventually were able to produce estimates for September, October, and November 2017.

Want more information?

For more information on the impact of Harvey, Irma, and Maria, check out these pages:

What else does BLS know about hurricanes?

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages produces maps of businesses and employment in flood zones for states on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts that are vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storm. You can read more about those maps in another recent blog.

We hope the 2018 hurricane season won’t bring the loss of life and destruction of property that we saw in 2017. Regardless of what the season brings, BLS will be ready to continue providing gold-standard data about the labor market and economy.

BLS Big Data Delivers Hurricane Flood Zone Maps

Information is key to preparing for a natural disaster. That’s why we have updated our maps of businesses and employment in flood zones for states on the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts that are vulnerable to hurricanes and tropical storms.

These maps combine data from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages with the most up-to-date information from the U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Geological Survey. The result is high-resolution graphics for every county with hurricane flood zones along or inland from the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts.

The Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages is our “Big Data” program. It gathers data from 9.9 million reports that almost every employer in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands files each quarter. We have been producing maps of businesses and employment in disaster areas since 2001, when we created zip code maps and tables of Lower Manhattan. We began mapping hurricane zones in 2014, combining BLS data with flood zones created by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and state emergency management agencies.

These maps are one way we use Big Data to create new products without increasing the burden on our respondents. Within BLS, we use these maps for research into the data collection and economic effects of a storm. We also provide these maps to state labor market information offices to use for their statistical analysis and emergency response.

Hurricane maps highlight how we use emerging technologies. We create these maps with open source mapping software, part of our open data practices that make it easier for decision makers to get and use the data.

This isn’t our only example of matching Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data with data from other federal agencies to deliver new insights. We have matched our data with publicly available Internal Revenue Service data to measure employment and wages in nonprofit organizations. We also are working with our colleagues at the Bureau of Economic Analysis to improve understanding of foreign direct investment in the United States. When these data become available, users can analyze employment and wages by industry and occupation in firms with and without foreign direct investment.

All of these efforts improve the quality and breadth of information available for decision makers. If you have ideas about other partnerships with our Big Data team, please send us a message or give us a call!

Reaching out to Stakeholders—and Steakholders—in Philadelphia

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics has staff around the country who serve several critical roles:

  • Contacting employers and households to collect the vital economic information published by BLS
  • Working with partners in the states who also collect and review economic data
  • Analyzing and publishing regional, state, and local data and providing information to a wide variety of stakeholders

To expand the network of local stakeholders who are familiar with and use BLS data to help make good decisions, the BLS regional offices sponsor periodic Data User Conferences. The BLS office in Philadelphia recently held such an event, hosted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

These Data User Conferences typically bring together experts from several broad topic areas. In Philadelphia, participants heard about trends in productivity measures; a mash-up of information on a single occupation—truck drivers—that shows the range of data available (pay and benefits, occupational requirements, and workplace safety); and an analysis of declines in labor force participation.

Typically, these events provide a mix of national and local data and try to include some timely local information. The Philadelphia conference included references to the recent Super Bowl victory by the Philadelphia Eagles and showed how to use the Consumer Price Index inflation calculator to compare buying power between 1960 (the last time the Eagles won the NFL Championship) and today.

We also tried to develop a cheesesteak index, a Philadelphia staple. Using data from the February 2018 Consumer Price Index, we can find the change in the price of cheesesteak ingredients over the past year.

Ingredient Change in Consumer Price Index, February 2017 to February 2018
White bread 2.5 percent decrease
Beef and veal 2.1 percent increase
Fresh vegetables 2.1 percent increase
Cheese and related products 0.8 percent decrease

Image of a Philadelphia cheesesteak

These data are for the nation as a whole and are available monthly. Consumer price data are also available for many metropolitan areas, including Philadelphia. These local data are typically available every other month and do not provide as much detail as the national data.

While the Data User Conferences focus on providing information, we also remind attendees the information is only available thanks to the voluntary cooperation of employers and households. The people who attend the conferences can help us produce gold standard data by cooperating with our data-collection efforts. In return we remind them we always have “live” economists available in their local BLS information office to answer questions by phone or email or help them find data quickly.

Although yet another Nor’easter storm was approaching, the recent Philadelphia Data User Conference included an enthusiastic audience who asked good questions and left with a greater understanding of BLS statistics. The next stop on the Data User Conference tour is Atlanta, later this year. Keep an eye on the BLS Southeast Regional Office webpage for more information.

Celebrating 75 Years of BLS Regional Offices

World War II had a significant impact on the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In 1942, the Office of Price Administration asked BLS to help them understand what was going on with prices and price controls. Price controls? Remember, this was during World War II and there was significant government intervention in markets. Shortly after that, the National War Labor Board asked BLS to conduct surveys and evaluate wage rate increases. These two projects showed the need for local information, not just national averages. Why am I writing about events from World War II? Well, the growing need for local data led BLS to create our regional offices, and we recently celebrated their 75th anniversary. I want to tell you a little about these offices and their rich history.

Today, BLS staff throughout the country collect price and wage data and more. As you can imagine, the uses of these data and the methods for collecting them have changed significantly. Our regional offices collect survey data, work closely with our state partners, and help people find and understand the information they need.

Survey data collection has changed significantly from the 1940s. Today our regional staff throughout the country work with survey respondents to make it as easy as possible to provide accurate information. Modern technology makes it easier to respond to our surveys, but even more important is the close relationships our regional staff have with survey respondents. That high-touch, high-tech approach has proven successful and helped us achieve high response rates.

BLS has a long history of working with states. We wrote about this unique and important partnership back in 2016. Our regional staff work closely with their state colleagues to provide data that are timely, accurate, and relevant to the local economy. We are proud of our partnership with the states.

Finally, each regional office has a small staff of economists dedicated to providing information to the public. These Economic Analysis and Information staff write news releases and other reports that focus on local data. The staff support our data collection efforts through outreach to local business communities and associations. The staff also provide information to people and businesses who use data to make important decisions.

What started as a way to provide analysis on government price controls and wage increases has evolved and blossomed into an integral part of BLS. The pioneering staff from our past and the dedicated staff of today allow us to produce gold standard economic statistics.

Congratulations to the BLS regional offices staff on 75 years of excellent service to the nation!

Labor Market Status of U.S. Military Veterans in 2017

In honor of Veterans Day, here’s a one-stop shop of all of our most up-to-date data on veterans.

  • After reaching 9.9 percent in January 2011, the unemployment rate for veterans was 2.7 percent in October 2017. This is the lowest rate since 2000.
  • The unemployment rate for Gulf War-era II veterans — who served on active duty at any time since September 2001 — reached 15.2 percent in January 2011. However, the unemployment rate was 3.6 percent in October 2017, the lowest rate since this series began in 2006.
  • The peak unemployment rate for nonveterans was 10.4 percent in January 2010; their rate was 3.8 percent in October 2017.
  • There were 347,000 unemployed veterans in the United States in the third quarter of 2017; 30 percent of them were ages 18 to 34.
  • In the third quarter of 2017, more veterans worked in government than in any other industry; 21 percent of all veterans and 25 percent of Gulf War-era II veterans worked for federal, state, or local government. By comparison, 13 percent of employed nonveterans worked in government.
  • After government, the next largest employers of veterans are manufacturing and professional and business services.

Now let’s take a look at some data that may help veterans who are looking for work or considering a career change.

Looking to move?

In 2016, the unemployment rate for veterans varied across the country, ranging from 1.8 percent in Indiana to 7.6 percent in the District of Columbia.

A map showing unemployment rates for U.S. military veterans by state in 2016

Editor’s note: Data for this map are available in the table below.

What industries have the most job openings?

There were 6.1 million job openings in September 2017. Here’s how they break down by industry.

A chart showing job openings by industry in September 2017.

Editor’s note: Data for this chart are available in the table below.

What are the fastest-growing jobs?

Thank you, veterans, for your service. Check out our website at www.bls.gov 24/7 or give our information office a call at 202-691-5200. We also have regional information offices available to assist you. BLS has the data you need to make wise decisions.

Unemployment rates for veterans by state, 2016 annual averages
State Unemployment rate
Total, 18 years and over 4.3%

Alabama

4.9

Alaska

2.7

Arizona

3.9

Arkansas

3.1

California

5.4

Colorado

3.9

Connecticut

4.4

Delaware

4.1

District of Columbia

7.6

Florida

4.2

Georgia

3.5

Hawaii

2.2

Idaho

3.6

Illinois

6.7

Indiana

1.8

Iowa

4.2

Kansas

5.2

Kentucky

3.9

Louisiana

5.0

Maine

3.1

Maryland

3.8

Massachusetts

4.6

Michigan

3.2

Minnesota

5.8

Mississippi

4.6

Missouri

3.2

Montana

4.4

Nebraska

4.1

Nevada

4.0

New Hampshire

2.1

New Jersey

4.9

New Mexico

3.6

New York

5.6

North Carolina

4.5

North Dakota

3.9

Ohio

4.2

Oklahoma

4.5

Oregon

6.3

Pennsylvania

5.2

Rhode Island

3.7

South Carolina

5.0

South Dakota

2.6

Tennessee

3.6

Texas

3.6

Utah

2.3

Vermont

2.2

Virginia

3.4

Washington

3.8

West Virginia

4.8

Wisconsin

5.0

Wyoming

5.1
Note: Veterans are men and women who served on active duty in the U.S. Armed Forces and were not on active duty at the time of the survey.
Job openings by industry in September 2017
Industry Number
Professional and business services 1,193,000
Health care and social assistance 1,074,000
Accommodation and food services 667,000
Retail trade 616,000
Manufacturing 425,000
Finance and insurance 280,000
Other services 280,000
State and local government, excluding education 267,000
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities 246,000
Wholesale trade 222,000
Construction 196,000
State and local government education 182,000
Educational services 98,000
Information 94,000
Arts, entertainment, and recreation 90,000
Federal government 81,000
Real estate and rental and leasing 59,000
Mining and logging 24,000